Is the Top-Earning Film of 2026 Already Set in Stone?
Imagine staring at a crowded lineup of epic movies slated for next year, and wondering which one will reign supreme at the box office. That's the thrilling dilemma we're facing as we gear up for 2026—and spoiler alert, early signs point to one underdog contender that might just steal the show.
Published 3 hours ago
I'm Alex, the Senior Movies Editor here, overseeing our New Movies team and proudly serving as one of ScreenRant's Rotten Tomatoes-approved critics. My journey began with a B.A. in English from Brown University, followed by a year locked down in Scotland where I earned a Master's in Film Studies from the University of Edinburgh—a vibrant city that's full of energy and history. Nowadays, I call Milan, Italy, home and work from there, which is perfect since it's just a quick train ride to the Venice Film Festival, an event I first covered for SR back in 2024.
While 2025 didn't quite deliver the blockbuster bonanza that fans and industry insiders were hoping for, there's plenty of room for optimism heading into 2026. The upcoming calendar is packed with potential smash hits, especially during a jam-packed summer season. Iconic franchises such as Star Wars, Toy Story, and Spider-Man are making triumphant returns to cinemas. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is generating buzz, and Steven Spielberg is revisiting high-stakes sci-fi with a big-budget twist. Greta Gerwig's take on Narnia will dazzle audiences on IMAX screens over Thanksgiving, while Dune: Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday drop on the exact same day in December—now that's a scheduling showdown!
But here's where it gets controversial: Can a year post-COVID truly rebound to massive heights? We're just a couple of weeks shy of wrapping up 2025, and even now, Zootopia 2 is on the verge of becoming Hollywood's second $1 billion earner, with Avatar: Fire & Ash looking almost guaranteed to follow suit. Several films slated for next year would likely have shattered that mark before the pandemic hit, yet it's anyone's guess if they'll all find space to thrive at that level. Selecting which one will emerge as the year's highest-grossing picture feels like an impossible task.
That is, until some preliminary tracking data starts to reveal hints of the winner.
Toy Story 5 Appears Poised to Dominate 2026
Greenlight Analytics, through their platform TheQuorum, conducts pre-release tracking by surveying about 2000 individuals regularly on their familiarity with and enthusiasm for upcoming releases. These metrics can shift as a movie's launch date nears and its promotional efforts ramp up. In the most recent round of data covering 72 films, Avatar: Fire & Ash leads with a 73% awareness score—up from 47% in July, right before its trailer debuted. Its interest score sits at a solid 54%, ranking it second overall.
Toy Story 5, however, claims the top spot with a 59% interest score. For context, the typical benchmark for animated or family-oriented films six months out from release is around 40%. Its awareness score of 56%—more than twice the average—places it fifth among all titles and even edges out Anaconda, which is set to hit theaters in just two weeks. Disney hasn't even kicked off a full marketing push yet, yet it's already outperforming shows like The Mandalorian & Grogu (30%), The Odyssey (33%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (43%), and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (45%) in this metric.
And this is the part most people miss: Its theater score, which measures the share of people who'd choose to watch it in a cinema rather than at home, stands at an impressive 51%. That's the highest across all 72 movies surveyed. Even Avatar: Fire & Ash, which is projected to rake in over $2 billion globally and boasts a unique 3D experience you can't fully recreate on your living room screen, trails at 49%.
Of course, this doesn't ensure Toy Story 5 will surpass $2 billion in revenue, but it firmly establishes Pixar's latest installment as a powerhouse. Steven Spielberg's sci-fi entry arrives the week prior, Supergirl the week after, and Minions 3 just a week beyond that. That's fierce rivalry in the mix. Yet, these numbers strongly indicate Toy Story is the one generating the most fear among competitors.
Toy Story 3 and 4 both eclipsed $1 billion, so expectations are high for this sequel to match that feat. But what if we compare it to Inside Out 2's $1.6 billion haul? We might be witnessing a new record for an American animated feature—and if so, it's conceivable that Woody and Buzz could claim the top position in what promises to be a remarkable year.
Release Date
June 19, 2026
Director
Andrew Stanton
Writers
Andrew Stanton
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Woody (Voice)
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Tim Allen
Buzz Lightyear (voice)
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Joan Cusack
Jessie (voice)
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Combat Carl (voice)
What do you think—can a beloved animated sequel like Toy Story 5 really overshadow high-octane spectacles like Avengers: Doomsday or Dune: Part 3? Or do you believe massive franchises with bigger budgets and effects will always rule the box office? Is nostalgia enough to top raw spectacle? Share your opinions in the comments below—I'm curious to hear if you agree, disagree, or have a totally different take on what might dominate 2026!
